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Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Mud's Annual Fantasy Football Preview

Hello all! Welcome again to the literary diarrhea that can only be Mud posting yet another Fantasy Football blog post! I know what you're thinking- "Mud, will Hurricane Earl impact our geographical area?" Fucked if I know. But let's say I'm bringing in the patio furniture. Also, I'm happy to get some text back on this blog instead of some pictures of the Club Sub hat at fucking StoryLand or Chuck E. Cheese. Time to get edgy again, bitches!

So as always, here's my team-by-team rankings and draft review. In accordance with the classical tradition, if you don't like what I have to say, please blow it out your ass. And a special message to the Commish- I like your little blurbs about draft day that you posted on the website. Nice. Do it again and I'll have your legs broken. This is my house.

Quick note: Special thanks to That Guy for hosting the draft as part of his Freedom Tour. However, the Freedom Tour needs some logistical help, as "air conditioning" should have been on the rider. Seriously, I think he set the oven to 450 degrees and left the door open. In fact, when we were informed of the absence of air conditioning, it led to this exchange between That Guy, Terminator, and myself:

Me: I thought you had central air.
Terminator: Right, we figured it's a newer house, and most newer homes have central air...
That Guy: Air conditioning??? Ha ha! Suck on my shit!

Here are some things to consider going forward:

1. None of us are in shape. Really, if you have a bunch of fat guys eating, drinking, breathing with difficulty, shouting, sweating, and on occasion thinking, then it's gonna be fucking hot. Which it was. As the Commish said, you all should be thankful that I didn't remove my shirt, because I was seriously considering it.

2. I would have happily brought a window air conditioner, and I think a few others would have as well. I also would have thrown some $ at the electric bill. As others would have. I have confirmed this with multiple owners.

3. An e-mail should have gone out to say "I don't have air conditioning". We would have taken care of the rest, problem solved! As it was we had to balance a fan on top of a cooler and the damn thing kept falling off. The Commish and DaPrez were so frustrated by this that they nearly stuck their faces in the fucking thing to end the misery. And we would have drank their blood. Wait, what?

So let's look at the team-by-team breakdown in no particular order (actually, that's not true- I now realize it is alphabetical by team name).

A'S AVATARS: It's about time HRD got rid of the stupid "CAPTAIN MORGAN MEN" name. However, he still fails to realize that computers have "shift" keys, so his team name remains capitalized. Here's a sample e-mail from HRD:

HEY MUD HOW ARE YOU I I HOPE THE FAMILY IS DOING WELL COWBOYS YANKEES GO FUCK YOUR FACE SIGNED AC (attachment: some lewd pornographic act involving a 400-lb woman)

I think he has a nice team here, despite the strange draft strategy. He drafted a kicker and a defense before a QB, which I find interesting, and then drafted three QBs. To make a Postal Service analogy, it's sorta like delivering the "You're Pre-Approved!" mail before the Priority Mail, which I'm pretty sure he does in real life. This team has no discernible strengths or weaknesses- they look mediocre/semi-solid down the line, even if they are mostly old/has-beens. But look at it this way, HRD: As long as something semi-solid is coming out of you, how bad can it be? That's right, I made an Irritable Bowel Syndrome joke. Despite all that, the only bowl I see in your future is the....well, I already made that joke, so let's move on.
Mud's Weighted Projected Rank: 5
Sleeper: Vince Young. I feel a bounce-back from this kid. All he has ever done is win, and this year, he's gonna have some sick stats.
Bust: Michael Turner. I don't understand why all the pundits rank him so high. He's coming off an injury, and prior to that Atlanta rode him like a pornstar trying to break the gang-bang record. I can't see it this year.

Club Sub Convicts: Well, there's no question who will be the best running team barring injury. However, this is much more a product of good luck than astute drafting acumen (acumen!). Between Jones-Drew and Chris Johnson, he has 2 of the top 4 RBs out there. But what's interesting is what happened next- he drafted Boldin and Mason to complement Joe Flacco. I get that, but it's a gamble. I guess it comes down to 2 different schools of thought:
1. I have the best RBs in this league, so I have insurance in case my QB/WR/WR gamble doesn't pay off.
2. I have the best RBs in the league, so I should surround them with adequate players and let them take care of the rest.
He chose option 1, which I kinda agree with. Side note: pencil in a victory for Big Sloppy against him in Week 9. Johnson and MJD both have 9 as a bye week.
Also, if the Commish were to win it all this year, then we all suck. Why? Because he hadn't even HEARD of the last 4 people he drafted. "Who are these people?" came out of his mouth a few times. Normally what comes out of his mouth are the cocks of Filipino oil-tanker deckhands.
Mud's Projected Weighted Rank: 1
Sleeper:
Joe Flacco. I don't really think he is much of a sleeper anymore, but Flacco is awesome. He's the superstar QB of the future without question.
Bust: Anquan Boldin: Word is they will be using him out of the slot, which he hasn't had much experience with, and the track record hasn't been very good for receivers switching teams.

DaPrez: Every league has one- the guy who brings a laptop, several spreadsheets, 15 different draft strategies, oddsmaker sheets, Red Bull, and 3 cellphones to the draft. It's like he is expecting his network of scouts to call into his war room at any minute. He's also the guy who says after each mid to late round pick "Word on the street is that this guy has chylamidia" or "His baby-momma bought a pistol last week". It's really an amazing level of dorkdom. Relax, guy! That said, he has a nice team, and I think his homework (or fucking blind luck) will get him into the playoffs this year. However, his weak week will be week 8, with Jackson, Knox and Matt Ryan on bye weeks. These things have to be considered.
Mud's Formulaic Projected Rank: 3
Sleeper: Johnny Knox.
Chicago is going to be flinging the ball all over the place due to Mike Martz's incredible narcissim. Jay Cutler will have 35 TDs to go along with his 35 picks, so some of that will fall to Knox, who is the best route-runner they have.
Bust: Ryan Matthews. Please note- this is relative. I think Matthews will have a solid year, but the hype on this kid is amazing. He has yet to play a down in the NFL, remember that. There are some pundits who had this kid going in the top 10! I think he is a top-10 back, but not yet a top-10 player, so I think everyone had this kid ranked too high. This ought to be his keeper, though- he will be good, but he won't live up to the unfair expectations- at least not this season.

Doormats: Got hosed in the draft lottery, but honestly, I like this team. A lot. He has the best QB, a top-4 RB, and some wideouts that will be solid, even if unheralded in the rankings. Lots of sleeper potential here. That being said, there are some big emotional red flags going up regarding the owner- impending childbirth (and seriously, congrats- we're all happy for you. Also, the hospitals have wi-fi, so there are no excuses as to getting your lineups in. : ) as well as a devastating loss in the poker affair on draft day. But watch out for Nate Burleson- as Stafford matures, we're gonna see some big numbers, and Johnson will be double-covered, leaving Burleson to have a big year. But he isn't my sleeper.
Mud's Computed Weighted Rank: 4
Sleeper: Matt Forte.
Everyone is sour on this guy because of last season, but what didn't get mentioned enough was the upheaval that occurred in Chicago's O-Line prior to last season. This guy is one of the better receiving RBs in the league, and as previously mentioned, the Bears are going to be slinging the ball all over the place. That and Chester Taylor is 146 years old. Forte is going to have a big season. Anyone see the 89-yard TD run the other night? Against Oakland, but still.
Bust: Jahvid Best. Hate to say it, but he just isn't that good. This will be Kevin Smith's job by week 5 again.

Finebeverages: I think we all know where this guy's head was on draft day. It was in Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. Therefore, it was not at the draft, and it showed. All you need to know is that his best RB is Ronnie Brown. I'm surprised he didn't try to draft some of his CF kids. But I guess that can be expected when you have to phone in your first 4 picks and spill your coffee and dip cup all over your spreadsheets while driving 75mph. Granted, his wideouts are solid, but the old adage still stands- good RBs are better than good wideouts. He's trying to be the first owner to win a league without a good RB, instead relying on a stellar QB and solid wideouts. Sorry- not buying it.
Mud's TrackMaster (TM) Conceptualized Rank: 8
Sleeper: Visanthe Shiancoe.
Let's face it- Favre has no one else to throw to. Who is he going to look for when Percy Harvin collapses with a headache and Bernard Berrian trips over his own clubfoot?
Bust:Reggie Wayne. This one hurts, as he has been serviceable for so long. But he limped home last season and he hasn't gotten younger in the offseason. I still think he will be decent, but the pundits are FAWNING over him again. I can't see him putting up much more than 120 pts this season.

I'llpistolwhip.....I'm not typing the whole fucking thing: This team's fucking great, if we turn back the clock to 2005! Where the fuck did you dig these assholes up? This is the first team to completely be on Medicare! Sloppy spent the entire draft saying "Go ahead, take the guy I want!" News flash! NOBODY wanted the guys you want. This team is a perfect example of the "Best available according to what the pundits think" draft strategy. Every player has a very high projected point total, but ask Joe G how it worked out for him the year he was unable to attend the draft. Go ahead, we'll wait.
You ask him yet?
In case he isn't responding to your text, here's the answer- he missed the playoffs. Now I understand that this is the easy approach, but if I miss the playoffs, at least I'm trying an original strategy, flawed as it may be. Your team looks like an ultrasound of my colon the morning after 12 Sam Adams and 6 all the way (light on the onions).
Mud's Projectification System Weighted Rankitude: 7
Sleeper: There is none.
This is what happens when you draft like this. NO ONE is shocked about any of it.
Bust: DeAngelo Williams. Another guy who is due for a letdown. Also, anyone know who Carolina's QB is? Well, neither do any of the other teams in the NFL, which means they will be keying on DeAngelo (his name is Matt Moore, by the way).

The Clapp:
What's remarkable here is that this team is collectively OLDER than Sloppy's, plus he has the distinction of having "the most guys who have had some sort of elderly-person surgery". All he is missing is Sidney Rice and his hip replacement, and he would led the league in "handicapped parking spaces needed to stay within code". In fact, his team name should be changed to "The Colostomy Bags". Clapp is keeping with the old people theme right down to his absence of an avatar, as apparently he feels that these new-fangled "computation machines" are a fad and will be going away. He just bought 16 Betamax machines at a swap meet cuz "they are coming back". Clapp would insert a comment here, but he is too busy turning his team so that they don't get bedsores. What's also interesting is that the young guys he did draft are firmly connected with St Louis' offense. Wow.
Mud's Highly-Regarded "Projectitation" Weighted Rank: 6
Sleeper:
All of them- they nodded off during "Murder, She Wrote".
Bust:
Their hips!! nah, too easy. Steven Jackson. They have worked this guy too hard for too long. And he is coming off disc surgery. Can't be good. He'll be carted off the field by week 4.

The Fighting Amish: Boy, things are bleak in central PA. This guy takes the award for "most head cases in a single Fantasy team". Let's take a look:
Brandon Marshall- has STAB WOUNDS.
Cedric Benson- charges pending.
Michael Crabtree- thinks he is WAY better than he really is.
Jay Cutler - Type 1 diabetic who carries himself like some entitled trust-fund kid. See "Paris Hilton".
Chris Chambers - Has a DUI, and more notably, married a woman whom he had pressed charges against a year earlier for STALKING him. Way to go Chris, you just justified every stalker in the world. "Well if it worked for her, maybe then Lindsay Lohan will realize OUR TRUE LOVE...."
Rashard Mendenhall - "Enjoys reading and writing poetry in his spare time". Robbed at gunpoint in 2008. Signed an endorsement deal with Champion. I wasn't aware they still made sports apparel.

There are more, but that is enough for now. BTW, Lex Hilliard played college football for the U of Montana. That can't sit well with the Commish.
This team has the potential to be the first team ever to be entirely suspended, leading to forfeits.
Mud's "RankManaic"(tm) Gross v. Net Stack-Ranked Weighted Projection: 10
Sleeper: Davone Bess.
With Marshall eating up all of the attention, Bess is gonna get some balls.
Bust: Michael Crabtree
. Sorry, I'm just not yet sold.

The Rusty Trombones:
Have you ever done something, like build a swingset or a deck and while you were building it thought "This is gonna be great! I'm so proud of myself!" and then when it was done you look back and realized the thing is so fucked up you won't let your kids near it?
That's my team. Seriously, I have a top-4 RB (Rice), the best WR out there (Johnson), a top-6 QB (Rivers), and absolutely NOTHING else. NOTHING. I don't even know where to start to blow this shit up. I blame the heat.
But yet part of me has high hopes for this season, and I don't know why. I have a lot of guys who could average 15-20 pts per week or 3-8 points per week and I wouldn't be surprised either way. And still I yearn for respectability, as I know that my team can handle they bidness and put in work if we make it to the Playoffs, as I am undefeated in the playoffs (y'all can suck it!)
Mud's Projection Machine (my dart board) Rank: 12
Sleeper: Zach Miller.
The only guy Campbell threw to in Washington was Cooley, so it stands to reason that the only guy who he will throw to in Oakland is Miller.
Bust: My own. I love my hairy man-boobs.

The Schemers: Honeymoon is over for the Schemer. Weak Running Backs, an unresolved QB situation leading to a rough year for Larry Fitz (BTW, I'm going to write an entire article one of these days covering African-American guys with Irish names, and you will all read it. Don't lie, you'd read that fucking article), and a Championship Hangover will remove this franchise from the playoffs. Listen, pal- it's tough to bounce back. Trust me, I know.
However I think that the Schemer deserves a ton of credit for not derailing the draft the way he did last year. He picked on time, and in order, and I'm fairly certain that "not screwing that part of it up" was in the forefront of his mind. Also, that draft board was awesome. We need to make sure that we get that again next year. Commish, you're in charge of making that happen.
So my apologies, Mr. Schemer, but it looks like we will be pulling a Hedges and O'Malley and living in the basement. Together.
Mud's Projected Ranking-Thingy: 11
Sleeper: Ahmad Bradshaw.
This is the year he takes Jacobs' job.
Bust:Reggie Bush. The USC bullshit will catch up to him. No doubt.

The W Boys: I used to harbor the notion that the management-power struggle of co-ownership of this team would bring it down. But draft day enlightened me. I realized that there is a shadow owner here. Kinda like the Tangiers (in "Casino"). You had the squeaky-clean owner with good PR, but in reality the mob runs the show. Well, with this team, The Rat is the Mob, and That Guy is the figurehead owner. I came to this realization when the Rat didn't say anything out loud during the whole draft- That Guy did all the talking. But when it was over, Rat said things like "I wanted this guy here" and "this player would do well for me in my lineup". Not "us" or "we". "I" and "me". Telling, very telling. It definitely brings a different dimension into it.
That said, I dig this team, and I think it will do great things this season. As usual, I expect this team to hang around and earn a playoff spot.
Mud's Fantasy-Project-a-Rank Weighted YOY Fiscal Report Before EBITA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxation, and Amortization): 2
Sleeper: Devin Aromashodu.
This guy can fly. I have already discussed that I think Chi-town's O will be pretty insane, and this guys will open eyes.
Bust: Kellen Winslow. He's not even CLOSE to being the same player he was a few years ago. It's all over for him.

So there you have it. That's my full listing of....

Wait, there's another team? Oh, right....

The Warriors: Here, Terminator gives us a lesson in why it is important to at least think about bye weeks when drafting. His team looks like every player has one of 2 different bye weeks. Let's break it down a bit.
Week 5: Brady, Ricky Williams, Mike Wallace, Rob Gronkowski
Week 8: Mohamed Massaquoi, Kevin Kolb, Victor Cruz (who?), Jason Avant, Ravens D

That's half of his team. Factor in that several of these players are of the "in the previous season 4 or more different owners have picked this guy up off the waiver wire and then dropped him" type and I smell a long season for the Warriors. Besides, the Baseball Furies are the preferred gang in that movie. Really, 7 out of 10 fans of that movie supported the Baseball Furies. I'm not kidding! Look it up!
He also put himself in an interesting situation. Let's look at his RBs and assume that 3 will start.
Shonn Greene- starter
Ricky Williams - starter
Then who is next? Felix Jones or Marion Barber? Each week he will have this dilemma. And I really hate the expression "It's a nice problem to have". Well, what good does that do, saying it's a "nice" problem? It's still a fucking problem, and when you pick the wrong guy one week it still pisses you off and makes you feel worse than if you DIDN'T have that fucking problem! So fuck the fucking problem!
Mud's Project-a-Ranking Opinion of this Fucking Team: 9
Sleeper: Victor Cruz.
No, I'm just kidding. This guy's gonna get cut. I really meant Pierre Garcon. This is the year that he surpasses Reggie Wayne as the #1 guy in Indy.
Bust: Mike Wallace. He has "high ankle sprain- out 8-12 weeks" written all over him.

Ok, now I have everyone. If you need me, I'll be sitting in the room with the air conditioning. Good luck to all, and I'm excited for another epic Fantasy season.
Bye bye now!